Understanding the labor market
As Trish explains, the real signal in recent jobs reports is not simply how many jobs are created, but where those jobs are coming from. Growth in private sector employment is what matters for productivity and long-term economic momentum, not an expansion of government payrolls.
Markets are so sensitive to jobs numbers because they directly shape expectations for interest rates. Recent moderation in hiring has given the Federal Reserve more room to continue easing policy, even if overall economic growth remains intact.
Inflation trends
Inflation is clearly cooling—but it still doesn’t feel that way for most households, and that disconnect is important. Prices are not returning to pre-pandemic levels, and Trish argues that this is ultimately a good thing.
A broad decline in prices would signal deflation, which is potentially disastrous. The healthier path forward is disinflation: slower price increases paired with gradual wage gains.
While perhaps frustratingly slow, this process allows the economy to keep expanding without triggering the kind of demand collapse that often accompanies deflationary recessions.
Energy abundance
Energy is the hidden variable behind many inflation debates. When fuel prices fall, transportation costs decline, supply chains ease, and pressure comes off everything from food prices to airfare.
Trish frames energy policy less as an ideological issue and more as a practical economic lever. Expanding energy supply can lower costs across the economy without sacrificing growth—creating a rare win for consumers, businesses, and markets heading into 2026.
Geopolitics
Venezuela may feel far removed from day-to-day investing, but Trish argues it shouldn’t be ignored. Energy-rich nations inevitably carry strategic weight, especially when rivals like China, Russia, and Iran are seeking influence close to U.S. borders.
These geopolitical forces rarely stay contained. They feed directly into energy markets, inflation expectations, and risk premiums, quietly shaping global markets long before they dominate headlines.
The impact of AI
Artificial intelligence is already reshaping how companies operate—often eliminating costs and entire workflows. While concerns about job displacement are understandable, Trish emphasizes that productivity breakthroughs have historically led to new industries and new forms of employment.
The companies that matter most are those using AI not merely to cut expenses, but to scale faster, expand output, and unlock new markets. For investors, the focus should be on who can turn efficiency gains into durable competitive advantage.
2026 outlook
Trish expects the economy to continue to show healthy growth in 2026, but with a widening divide between asset owners and those relying primarily on wages. That imbalance is likely to define the next phase of the cycle.
Her advice remains consistent: participation matters. Even simple, broad-based investing can compound meaningfully over time. The economy in 2026 may not feel smooth or fair—but for disciplined investors, opportunity remains very much alive.
