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QUICKTAKE

September 25, 2025

How Low Can Interest Rates Go?


When the Fed voted on September 17 to cut short-term interest rates by a quarter point, there was a lone dissenter. It was Trump appointee Stephen Miran, who was sworn in as Fed Governor just one day earlier.


Miran wanted a steeper cut and argued for a half point. The other 11 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)—which consists of seven Fed Governors and five Federal Reserve Bank Presidents—all went for the more gradual approach.


Miran remains an outlier at this point—but Trump will soon name a replacement for Jerome Powell, whose chairmanship ends in May 2026.


It is reasonable to think the new Fed Chair will be philosophically aligned with Miran. It could even be Miran himself.


Yesterday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is coordinating the search for the next Fed Chair, reinforced Miran’s message. He slammed the Fed for its slow approach.

Rates are too restrictive, they need to come down. I’m a bit surprised that the chair hasn’t signaled that we have a destination before the end of the year of at least 100 to 150 basis points. - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (9/24/2025)

In this report, we take a close look at the credible arguments—too often dismissed or overlooked by mainstream commentators—that support the Trump administration’s position that interest rates are now far too high.


We then discuss the implications for investors of what may soon turn out to be a major regime change at the Fed.


The next Fed


As Trump gets the opportunity to replace Fed Governors, he will of course look for individuals who are experienced and qualified. But it seems quite clear he will also choose people who agree with his perspective and can persuade others as well.


This likely means that the next Fed Chair, whether it is Stephen Miran or someone else, will have to be able to articulate a credible framework for lower interest rates under the current circumstances.

Everyone asks me what am I looking for when I interview potential Federal Reserve chairs, and it's just someone with an open mind, who's not looking in the rearview mirror, who's looking forward. - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (9/24/2025)

It is not enough just to say you want lower rates. If you are going to succeed, you have to make the case, especially if you want to shift consensus among remaining Fed officials who are not Trump appointees.


So what is the case for lower rates?


Speaking at the Economic Club of New York on Monday, Miran went into detail about why he voted the way he did. He presented a lot of complex economic arguments, but here are the key points investors need to understand…


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