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November 5, 2024

Election Day Update: Early Voting Favors Trump

As we write late afternoon on Election Day, various market signals are pointing in the direction of a Trump victory.


The widely followed prediction market Polymarket is showing a notable recovery in Trump’s implied chances, which have seen some recent volatility.


As recently as last Wednesday, October 30, Polymarket was indicating a 63% probability. This metric fell as low as 54% on Sunday, November 3.


Trump’s odds within Polymarket have since improved significantly and now stand at 62%.


Participants in the Polymarket platform are likely responding to early voting data, which indicate significant improvement in key states for registered Republicans relative to the 2020 Presidential Election.

WATCH @76research TONIGHT at 7PM EST for complete LIVE coverage! Trish and Rob will be joined by several special guests as they respond in real-time to all the latest information!

Other market-based indicators today point to a Trump victory as well. Throughout the campaign, the stock market has tended to respond favorably whenever perceptions of Trump’s chances have improved.


Today, the S&P 500 is trading up over 1% with notable strength in certain stocks that would especially benefit from a Trump Presidency.


Bitcoin has also shown a great deal of sensitivity to the election outcome. Trump has been enthusiastically pro-Bitcoin, while Harris and the Democrats have given mixed messages and tend to support more aggressive regulation.


Bitcoin has traded over $70,000 for much of the day after having fallen below $67,000 in recent days.


Please JOIN US @76research starting at 7pm EST tonight for LIVE coverage of Election Night.


Trish and Rob will be monitoring and responding to all the important data points that come through this evening.


We have a number of SPECIAL GUESTS lined up to provide additional insight and perspective. We will also be responding in real-time to all of your questions and comments. WE’LL SEE YOU TONIGHT!


And, in case you missed it, click HERE to watch last night’s ELECTION PREVIEW show!

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