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QUICKTAKE

January 2, 2025

Gold Soared 65% in 2025—Here’s Why the Rally May Still Have Legs

2025 will be remembered as the year the debasement trade went mainstream.


The idea is simple: when governments abuse their authority to print money and debase their own currency, investors eventually run for “hard assets” that cannot be printed.


As supply-constrained forms of money, gold and Bitcoin are viewed as the two key pillars of that trade.


Gold is constrained by geological scarcity and the realities of mining. (The total supply of gold only grows by 1%-2% per year.)


Bitcoin is constrained by code; the total supply of Bitcoin from mining obeys a strict protocol—and will ultimately top out at 21 million coins around year 2046.


Fiat money is what governments create to enable commerce within their borders. But the only constraint on the supply of fiat money is the ability and willingness of central banks to stop themselves. And let’s face it—governments (including our own) are rarely able to resist the lure of the printing press.


Given President Trump’s pro-crypto persona, his election helped drive a run-up in digital assets prices as many investors assumed digital assets would dominate the debasement trade.


After all, this is the age of AI. And the entire global financial system is preparing to go “on chain”—with even the largest banks and financial institutions aggressively adopting blockchain technology.


Cryptocurrency is the future, whereas gold is one of the oldest and most primitive forms of money. The economist John Maynard Keynes called gold a “barbarous relic”—and that was over 100 years ago.


Yet, in 2025, it was gold that stole the show.


The price of an ounce of gold ended the year just above $4,300. Gold advanced 65% in 2025—its best calendar year performance since 1979.


Gold also substantially outperformed stocks, even with the S&P 500 delivering a highly respectable high-teens return.


Meanwhile, Bitcoin, seen by many as “digital gold” and seemingly tailor-made for the AI era, notably lagged. Bitcoin declined almost 10% in 2025.


The two assets were neck and neck for much of the year, but by mid-August, sentiment toward Bitcoin and the broader crypto complex began to unravel. Gold continued to surge.

Gold vs. S&P 500, Bitcoin

(Total Return - Year to Date)

Metallic money talks


Gold’s success in 2025 signals declining faith in the prevailing economic order. In times of uncertainty, like technological or political revolution, metallic money has great appeal.


A historical snippet from the American Revolution proves the point.


In July of 1780, a convoy of French warships carrying more than 5,000 soldiers entered Newport Harbor in Rhode Island to assist the Continental Army. Initially, locals were highly skeptical.


Just two years prior, another French fleet had arrived in Newport, which had been under British control since December 1776. Expecting strong French naval support, American patriots engaged the Redcoats. But bad weather and poor communication forced the French to retreat.


The attack was a complete disaster for the Americans. The Battle of Rhode Island in 1778 also devastated the local economy in Newport and sparked a wave of anti-French sentiment. Patriots were furious.


The Marquis de Lafayette was a young French nobleman, a major general in the Continental Army and one of George Washington’s closest aides. In a letter written shortly after the defeat, he wrote: “I never was in such danger as during this affair, not so much from the enemy as from the disposition of our own people toward the French.”


Yet when the French returned two years later, they were greeted warmly. It quickly became known that they would be paying local merchants with silver coins, not the rapidly depreciating paper bills issued by the Continental Congress, which were backed by nothing.


Baron Ludwig von Closen, a Bavarian-born French army officer, explained: “The inhabitants, who had at first shown some uneasiness at our arrival, soon became perfectly easy when they saw that we paid exactly for everything, and always in silver.”

Parallels to today


The Continental Congress was in far worse shape financially in 1780 than the U.S. government is today. But with U.S. debt now at $37 trillion and ever-growing entitlement liabilities, investors still have reason to doubt the long-term viability of the paper money the U.S. government issues.


In moments like this, throughout history, investors instinctively gravitate to money that cannot be printed. Digital assets like Bitcoin build upon this foundation, but gold has a track record that spans thousands of years.


Paradoxically, uncertainty surrounding AI and crypto’s reshaping of the financial system may be driving investors back to the oldest form of money.


Gold.


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Global Gold ETF Flows