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QUICKTAKE

November 5, 2025

How to Play the Zohran Exodus


The prediction markets have been saying it was inevitable for months, but it was still hard to believe. Last night, it went from high probability scenario to fact. Zohran Mamdani is going to be the next Mayor of New York City.


Mamdani’s political views represent a uniquely disturbing blend of socialism, tolerance of crime and anti-Zionism that is unprecedented in New York, if not American, politics.


Cities can only thrive when individuals are interested in living in them and businesses are motivated to commit capital to them.


While Mamdani will not have unlimited power, we view his election as a serious threat to the economic health of New York City.


Below, we revisit an investment idea that we highlighted following Mamdani’s primary victory in June—and why it now carries even greater relevance.

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We both know New York City quite well. Trish came to New York to attend Columbia University and then built her career and started her family there. Rob was born in Manhattan and likewise studied, lived and worked in the city for decades.


Under the leadership of Rudy Giuliani and then Michael Bloomberg, New York City thrived as the global financial capital of the world. Together, these two mayors built a strong economic foundation for the city out of the wreckage of the 1980s crack epidemic.


Subsequent mayors may have been less talented but at least benefited from a strong hand that was left to them.


Cities, like countries, do not just thrive on their own. Success requires leadership.


Bloomberg leans left on many social issues, but he was relatively tough on crime. In fact, his support for “stop-and-frisk” policing practices helped end his very short-lived bid to become the 2020 Democrat Presidential candidate.


Bloomberg also deserves credit for several smart moves to develop New York economically and catalyze the city’s transformation into a major technology hub.


As an entrepreneur, Bloomberg sat at the intersection of finance and technology. He built from scratch what would become the world’s most important and relied upon financial information provider.


Thanks in no small part to various initiatives of his administration, leading tech companies—including Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, IBM, Shopify, and TikTok—established a large presence in the city. In the venture capital industry, New York now ranks second in the United States, trailing only Silicon Valley.


After the Global Financial Crisis, Bloomberg concluded that New York was too dependent on finance and wanted to build a stronger engineering and innovation economy.


In 2010, his administration launched the Applied Sciences NYC competition, offering Roosevelt Island land and $100 million in city funding to a university willing to build a new applied tech campus.


Cornell University, partnering with Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, won the bid to build a campus on Roosevelt Island. Bloomberg personally championed the project through rezoning, permitting, and financing decisions.


Cornell Tech opened in 2017. It has since produced thousands of highly trained computer science graduates, playing a role similar to Stanford or Berkeley in the Bay Area. Talent-driven big tech firms have repeatedly cited the institution as a reason that they set up shop in New York.


What’s next for NYC?


A newly elected mayor who cares about economic growth should be excited to inherit an asset as valuable as Cornell Tech. But Zohran Mamdani (who founded the Students for Justice in Palestine chapter at Bowdoin College, from which he graduated in 2014, a year after Bloomberg’s final term ended) has different priorities.


“There are ways to make what seems to be an international battle into a local one,” Mamdani said in 2020. “If you were to look at the lens of BDS [Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions] and how it applies here in New York City, you would say that Cornell-Technion is something you would be talking about.”


“Technion University is an Israeli University that has helped to develop a lot of weapons technology used by the IDF [Israel Defense Force],” he warned.


Mamdani has since stated that he intends to reassess the city’s commitment to Cornell Tech if elected, drawing from the BDS playbook of using political power to penalize Israel economically.


The Cornell Tech initiative is not the lynchpin of the New York City economy, but Mamdani’s hostility to it exemplifies his mindset. This is one of many positions held by Mamdani that have the potential to erode New York’s attractiveness as a destination for employers.


The anti-Bloomberg


If mayors like Giuliani and Bloomberg were committed to making New York an economic success story, Mamdani’s policy plans seem purpose-built for turning it into a disaster zone.


Consider his plans to change corporate tax rates. Mamdani wants to bring the highest marginal rates on corporate income up from an already high 7.25% to 11.5%, giving firms an immediate financial incentive to relocate.


Perhaps the most important variable that companies consider when setting up shop or expanding in a particular location is, will prospective employees want to live here?


People tend to think that companies lease fancy office space to impress customers or investors, but the main priority—as any major office landlord will tell you—is to attract workers.


Who wants to work in an inconveniently located office with no amenities, bad views, outdated fixtures and broken elevators?


The same logic applies to the city in which these offices are located. There is no point in leasing office space in a city this is unappealing to potential workers.


Mamdani intends to raise the marginal income tax rate by 2% on the city’s highest earners. This would make marginal individual income tax rates by far the highest in the U.S.

(Source: Empire Center)

Most people, especially parents of young children, want to live somewhere that is safe and secure. Even though Mamdani is only 34 years old, he has a long track record of expressing hostility to law enforcement and thinks “violence is an artificial construction.”

The son of an academic theorist who believes that “[s]uicide bombing needs to be understood as a feature of modern political violence rather than stigmatized as a mark of barbarism,” Mamdani is also intensely committed to the Palestinian cause. His radicalism on this particular issue creates another risk factor that businesses, as employers, will need to consider going forward.


Mamdani’s views on Middle Eastern politics and track record as an activist and agitator have the potential to turn New York City into a very hostile environment for a large proportion of its population, to put it mildly.


The blockchain challenge


We have seen exit poll data suggesting women under 29 had the highest propensity to vote for Mamdani—north of 80%. These self-described “hot girls for Zohran” may have elevated perceptions of their own appearance, but they may not fully understand what is coming down the pike for the financial services sector.


The next big transformation of the financial services industry is tokenization. This refers to putting records of ownership—of stocks, bonds, funds, or real estate—on digital ledgers that update instantly.


Tokenization reduces the need for many of the middlemen and slow settlement processes that have long defined Wall Street. A big reason there are financial hubs in the first place is the traditional benefit of having everything in one place: the banks, the lawyers, the exchanges, and the regulators.


That closeness creates a powerful network effect—firms really need to be in New York or other established financial centers to do business efficiently.


But tokenized markets make geography less important. If assets settle instantly and custody is handled digitally, a firm no longer needs to sit near a clearinghouse or a large legal complex. Instead, companies can focus on lower costs, business-friendly rules, and flexible regulatory environments.


Here comes the Texas Stock Exchange


This is where cities like Dallas—and the emerging Texas Stock Exchange—gain appeal. As tokenization grows, the advantages that once made New York inevitable begin to fade.


The Texas Stock Exchange is positioning itself to be the first major U.S. exchange built with tokenized trading in mind from the start.


The goal is to move toward same-day or instant settlement rather than the two-day delay that still exists on most U.S. trades. This will enable companies to move capital faster, reduce the fees they pay to middlemen, and make it easier for investors to transfer or collateralize shares.


TXSE is already working with firms that handle digital custody and transfer of tokenized securities, so that when regulations allow, it can flip the switch and begin offering tokenized shares as a standard listing option.


Whereas Mamdani sees the corporations within his city as a resource he can access to fund free social services, the Texas state legislature has passed the 2025 Texas Capital Markets Package.


This is a set of state-level reforms designed to make Texas a more attractive home for financial firms, public listings, and investment operations—essentially laying the groundwork for the Texas Stock Exchange to compete with New York.


The legislation streamlines securities registration, reduces certain state-level compliance costs, and clarifies rules for tokenized ownership. It offers targeted incentives for financial institutions relocating headquarters or establishing trading desks in Texas, while shielding them from some of the more aggressive regulatory approaches seen elsewhere.


Just as Mamdani prepares to make conditions inhospitable for productive New Yorkers and large organizations, technology is rapidly shifting to undermine the city’s grip on the financial sector.


Where will everyone go?


For the most part, the American population is shifting to sunbelt states, where taxes are lower, the business climate is friendlier and politicians like Zorhan Mamdani are nowhere to be found.


Recent IRS data indicate significant net population gains in states like Florida, Texas, North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee. Comparable population losses have occurred in California, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts and New Jersey.


Mamdani’s election should only accelerate this trend, bolstering the case for an Income Builder Model Portfolio investment idea that we profiled at the end of June….


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