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QUICKTAKE

February 11, 2026

Capitalizing on the Tech Downturn

Markets have begun to recover somewhat from the software/crypto-led downturn that bottomed out late last week.

As we discussed in Software as a Sell-Off: Another AI Overreaction?, investors have been gripped with fear that AI will actually hurt—and maybe even destroy—a number of technology companies that have been perceived as market stalwarts for years.

The bearish thesis that has terrified investors goes like this: If AI can write computer code in a more or less costless and instantaneous way, then what is the value of businesses that are built on code?

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A convenient way to track the companies that find themselves in the crosshairs of this pessimistic market narrative is to look at the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV). This ETF contains many of the most severely impacted names.

IGV has bounced about 7% over the last three trading sessions but remains down approximately 19% for the year, significantly underperforming the broader technology group. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite Index is actually slightly positive through the year, demonstrating how targeted this sell-off has been.

Software (IGV) vs. S&P 500, NASDAQ

(Total Return - Last 6 Months)

Sweeping sentiment shifts that take down specific sectors of the market are never fun… but they can create opportunities.

We acknowledge that many stocks in the technology space probably will be disrupted and ultimately harmed by AI. Yet at the same time, there are many stocks that have participated in this downturn that probably should not have.

We have identified one stock in particular, which we discuss below. We believe recent weakness is unwarranted and creates a compelling long-term entry point.

We have therefore added the stock as a Model Portfolio position in both our American Resilience and Inflation Protection strategies….

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