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QUICKTAKE

January 29, 2026

MAG7 MONITOR: META Jumps as MSFT Cloud Miss Brings Down Market


If you’re going to spend, you better grow. That was the clear message the market sent today after two critical Mag 7 earnings reports.


Meta Platforms (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) each released quarterly results last night, producing sharply different responses.


The two tech giants continue to spend heavily on AI. This has been a persistent source of worry for investors and a headwind for the stocks, both of which had meaningfully lagged the broader market over the last three months.


But even though META actually lifted its capital expenditure guidance for next year to a whopping $125 billion at the midpoint, the shares rallied more than 10% today. META demonstrated that this enormous investment in AI is actually accelerating growth.


META shareholders were rewarded after the company handily exceeded consensus analyst forecasts across key revenue and operating profit metrics.


MSFT shares, meanwhile, were severely punished today, trading down 10%. The main concern was that growth in its Azure cloud segment, while a healthy 39%, fell short of expectations and was now facing capacity-related bottlenecks.

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Along with NVIDIA (NVDA) and Apple (AAPL), MSFT is among the three largest market cap stocks in the world. It represents about 6% of the S&P 500.


MSFT’s pain rippled across the entire stock market today and weighed heavily on sentiment, although shares recovered over the course of the day. The S&P 500 ended the day marginally down.


Expectations are everything, especially when it comes to growth stocks.


Heading into earnings results last night, the contrast between the two stocks was notable. MSFT was trading at 30x 2026 earnings, with META far behind at 22x.


As we have so often seen with Mag 7 names, depressed expectations, sustained underperformance and negative sentiment can set the stage for strong returns once a company starts to deliver. Elevated expectations, on the other hand, can turn modest disappointments into painful routs.

MAG7 MONITOR Coverage Universe

META’s recovery


META has had a tough stretch in recent months, irritating investors with aggressive spending on AI, but appears ready to make a comeback.


Through yesterday, META was the cheapest stock among the Mag 7 (relative to 2026 expected earnings). It was also last in terms of one-year stock performance.


On January 15, we sent an update to American Resilience Model Portfolio subscribers, adding META to the portfolio and eliminating another technology name. Since then, the shares have returned approximately 19%.


As we explained in that note, the decision to include META was based on several compelling factors, including:


(1) Mispriced quality


META combines one of the most profitable core businesses in global technology with durable growth….


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